Yes, I agree with you there. Although I think it also goes down to the software vendor; of course with large software companies like Microsoft or Apple, they sell their software in such vast quantities that they are more at liberty to choose how to distribute it. However, with smaller companies they aren’t so free in choosing because they have limited resources – be that funds or personnel. Especially on the financial side, you need to sell a large quantity of software to make boxing it worth it economically, to gain the benefits of economies of scale so that the unit cost is low enough to make enough profit (of course if the software in question is hundreds or thousands of dollars then this isn’t so fundamental).

> I think as soon that one can be replaced with the other seamlessly. Then we will have a paradigm shift.

That’s another interesting idea, and as you say we’re getting there; certainly in terms of the number of people who have access to the Internet, I suspect that as download speeds get faster (for example Virgin Media have started to offer fibre-optic broadband with near 50mbps download speeds in the UK), demand for downloads of software will increase, and should become more prevalent.

Although I think, as you say, boxed software will still be around for awhile yet, especially with large sites like Amazon which sell boxed-only software.

They can (most) move from one area to another to pick up this package.

They have the funds to pay for said package.

They have the necessary equipments to use said package.

With downloadable software you add another requirement that people need to fulfill but remove one of of the prior one (physically moving) vs the digitally retrieving.

I think as soon that one can be replaced with the other seamlessly. Then we will have a paradigm shift.

We are getting there and it’s wonderful to see so many online stores and services.